Setting description

Hormone therapies more effective in the TP53- biomarker signature

Simulations setting

PFS distributions


Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1


By signature:

signature var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 49.6, median = 40.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.27, hr = 0.73 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
DRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 49.6, median = 40.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.27, hr = 0.73 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 49.6, median = 40.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.27, hr = 0.73 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 64 0 2
TP53- 364 2 2
TP53+ 21 27 19
DRD+ 63 2 3
TEfus+ 88 8 10
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.128 0.000 0.004
TP53- 0.728 0.004 0.004
TP53+ 0.042 0.054 0.038
DRD+ 0.126 0.004 0.006
TEfus+ 0.176 0.016 0.020
futility (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 2 90 83
TP53- 4 375 392
TP53+ 118 140 142
DRD+ 17 123 192
TEfus+ 19 200 196
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.004 0.180 0.166
TP53- 0.008 0.750 0.784
TP53+ 0.236 0.280 0.284
DRD+ 0.034 0.246 0.384
TEfus+ 0.038 0.400 0.392
max sample size (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0 0 0
TP53- 107 19 23
TP53+ 12 8 12
DRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.214 0.038 0.046
TP53+ 0.024 0.016 0.024
DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.162.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.026             0.076             0.068

The overall power was 0.728.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.728             0.000             0.000

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control Hormone_therapies Niraparib Taxel_therapies
all graduation 0 64 2 0
futility 0 2 83 90
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 676 (560, 752) 370 (199, 515) 260 (147, 440) 276 (139, 423)
n_unique 676 (560, 752) 370 (199, 515) 260 (147, 440) 276 (139, 423)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (49, 60) 60 (45, 60) 60 (36, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 33 (14, 54) 38 (19, 57) 34 (9, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.95, 1) 0.09 (0.01, 0.51) 0.1 (0, 0.47)
rate 0.019 (0.017, 0.02) 0.014 (0.012, 0.016) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025)
DRD+ graduation 0 63 3 2
futility 0 17 192 123
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 183 (142, 215) 82 (42, 135) 90 (50, 148) 66 (31, 122)
n_unique 183 (142, 215) 82 (42, 135) 90 (50, 148) 66 (31, 122)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (49, 60) 60 (27, 60) 60 (42, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 42 (29, 55) 35 (21, 55) 44 (33, 58)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.9 (0.45, 1) 0.19 (0.02, 0.65) 0.24 (0.03, 0.69)
rate 0.019 (0.016, 0.021) 0.014 (0.011, 0.018) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027) 0.022 (0.017, 0.027)
TEfus+ graduation 0 88 10 8
futility 0 19 196 200
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 244 (193, 280) 114 (58, 183) 104 (50, 180) 100 (50, 180)
n_unique 244 (193, 280) 114 (58, 183) 104 (50, 180) 100 (50, 180)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (36, 60) 60 (27, 60) 60 (27, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 37 (23, 55) 34 (22, 54) 36 (23, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.93 (0.54, 1) 0.26 (0.02, 0.71) 0.25 (0.02, 0.71)
rate 0.019 (0.017, 0.022) 0.015 (0.012, 0.019) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027)
TP53- graduation 0 364 2 2
futility 0 4 392 375
max_n 0 107 23 19
n 359 (253, 425) 238 (88, 306) 102 (52, 238) 100 (51, 250)
n_unique 359 (253, 425) 238 (88, 306) 102 (52, 238) 100 (51, 250)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 44 (21, 60) 38 (18, 60) 40 (20, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 37 (20, 53) 32 (18, 53) 33 (20, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.99, 1) 0.04 (0, 0.3) 0.06 (0, 0.3)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.01 (0.009, 0.012) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026)
TP53+ graduation 0 21 19 27
futility 0 118 142 140
max_n 0 12 12 8
n 325 (280, 357) 142 (56, 246) 150 (61, 251) 158 (57, 251)
n_unique 325 (280, 357) 142 (56, 246) 150 (61, 251) 158 (57, 251)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (28, 60) 60 (27, 60) 60 (23, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 32 (22, 53) 32 (19, 51) 29 (17, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.54 (0.12, 0.9) 0.48 (0.09, 0.89) 0.47 (0.11, 0.89)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.021 (0.018, 0.026) 0.022 (0.018, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control Hormone_therapies Niraparib Taxel_therapies
— graduation 0 378 402 402
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 105 23 19
n 201 (135, 246) 147 (57, 206) 40 (14, 134) 44 (19, 148)
n_unique 201 (135, 246) 147 (57, 206) 40 (14, 134) 44 (19, 148)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.93, 1) 0.13 (0.01, 0.5) 0.13 (0.01, 0.52)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.01 (0.008, 0.013) 0.022 (0.017, 0.031) 0.022 (0.018, 0.03)
–+ graduation 0 387 429 423
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 104 23 19
n 54 (34, 70) 32 (10, 54) 14 (5, 45) 19 (8, 48)
n_unique 54 (34, 70) 32 (10, 54) 14 (5, 45) 19 (8, 48)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.91 (0.6, 0.99) 0.27 (0.07, 0.66) 0.24 (0.05, 0.65)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.021) 0.01 (0.007, 0.016) 0.023 (0.015, 0.037) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034)
-+- graduation 0 188 177 189
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 12 12 8
n 139 (112, 161) 55 (17, 128) 54 (13, 125) 63 (23, 134)
n_unique 139 (112, 161) 55 (17, 128) 54 (13, 125) 63 (23, 134)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.49 (0.11, 0.87) 0.45 (0.08, 0.86) 0.49 (0.12, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.022 (0.017, 0.034) 0.022 (0.018, 0.029)
-++ graduation 0 261 284 305
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 12 12 7
n 101 (69, 121) 39 (14, 89) 36 (12, 90) 38 (14, 97)
n_unique 101 (69, 121) 39 (14, 89) 36 (12, 90) 38 (14, 97)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.5 (0.14, 0.89) 0.51 (0.12, 0.9) 0.47 (0.11, 0.89)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.025) 0.021 (0.016, 0.031) 0.021 (0.016, 0.032) 0.023 (0.017, 0.032)
+– graduation 0 389 422 415
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 104 23 18
n 50 (32, 67) 23 (7, 44) 20 (11, 49) 13 (5, 38)
n_unique 50 (32, 67) 23 (7, 44) 20 (11, 49) 13 (5, 38)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.87 (0.52, 0.99) 0.25 (0.04, 0.64) 0.27 (0.07, 0.65)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.022) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016) 0.023 (0.017, 0.032) 0.023 (0.015, 0.037)
+-+ graduation 0 393 441 433
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 103 23 18
n 47 (29, 63) 21 (6, 42) 19 (9, 46) 14 (4, 41)
n_unique 47 (29, 63) 21 (6, 42) 19 (9, 46) 14 (4, 41)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.84 (0.48, 0.98) 0.24 (0.04, 0.64) 0.29 (0.06, 0.67)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.022) 0.011 (0.006, 0.017) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034) 0.023 (0.015, 0.04)
++- graduation 0 236 275 263
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 11 12 7
n 42 (30, 54) 16 (5, 39) 21 (9, 42) 16 (4, 36)
n_unique 42 (30, 54) 16 (5, 39) 21 (9, 42) 16 (4, 36)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.49 (0.15, 0.85) 0.49 (0.14, 0.83) 0.47 (0.13, 0.86)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.021 (0.013, 0.039) 0.023 (0.016, 0.035) 0.022 (0.014, 0.042)
+++ graduation 0 293 342 340
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 11 12 7
n 42 (28, 54) 15 (4, 37) 18 (8, 42) 14 (4, 36)
n_unique 42 (28, 54) 15 (4, 37) 18 (8, 42) 14 (4, 36)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.52 (0.13, 0.85) 0.48 (0.12, 0.85) 0.47 (0.14, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.028) 0.022 (0.013, 0.038) 0.023 (0.015, 0.036) 0.022 (0.013, 0.039)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var Hormone_therapies Niraparib Taxel_therapies
all count 64 2
time_stop 34 (15, 55) 22 (15, 29)
n_trt 228 (115, 453) 135 (89, 181)
n_control 378 (163, 636) 242 (160, 325)
post_p 1 (0.97, 1) 0.96 (0.95, 0.98)
order 1 (1, 3) 1 (1, 1)
TP53- count 364 2 2
time_stop 37 (20, 54) 16 (15, 16) 22 (15, 29)
n_trt 194 (85, 302) 54 (53, 54) 85 (60, 110)
n_control 240 (123, 350) 87 (82, 92) 154 (103, 205)
post_p 1 (0.94, 1) 0.95 (0.93, 0.97) 0.96 (0.95, 0.96)
order 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 1) 1.5 (1.1, 1.9)
TP53+ count 21 19 27
time_stop 25 (22, 57) 32 (18, 52) 29 (17, 56)
n_trt 78 (54, 168) 102 (65, 173) 105 (56, 232)
n_control 129 (96, 283) 165 (90, 267) 157 (74, 303)
post_p 0.97 (0.92, 0.99) 0.98 (0.95, 1) 0.96 (0.92, 0.98)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 3.4)
DRD+ count 63 3 2
time_stop 44 (28, 57) 32 (28, 40) 35 (31, 39)
n_trt 71 (52, 117) 93 (91, 98) 69 (54, 84)
n_control 134 (87, 184) 107 (103, 132) 116 (102, 129)
post_p 0.98 (0.92, 1) 0.99 (0.9, 1) 0.91 (0.89, 0.94)
order 2 (1, 3) 2 (2, 2.8) 1.5 (1.1, 1.9)
TEfus+ count 88 10 8
time_stop 39 (23, 56) 26 (18, 51) 25 (20, 42)
n_trt 92 (57, 152) 76 (56, 110) 73 (54, 122)
n_control 170 (97, 241) 106 (75, 224) 100 (86, 191)
post_p 0.98 (0.94, 1) 0.96 (0.89, 0.99) 0.94 (0.89, 0.96)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 3)
Futility:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 2 90 83
time_stop 10 (10, 11) 34 (9, 53) 39 (19, 57)
n_trt 65 (55, 75) 150 (61, 277) 172 (100, 293)
n_control 115 (107, 123) 388 (105, 608) 450 (216, 666)
post_p 0.17 (0.15, 0.19) 0.04 (0, 0.16) 0.02 (0, 0.09)
order 1 (1, 1) 3 (1, 7) 4 (1.2, 6.8)
TP53- count 4 375 392
time_stop 17 (11, 21) 33 (20, 53) 32 (18, 53)
n_trt 57 (51, 69) 87 (53, 188) 86 (52, 185)
n_control 94 (72, 122) 215 (117, 357) 203 (106, 365)
post_p 0.15 (0.08, 0.24) 0.1 (0.02, 0.24) 0.09 (0.02, 0.22)
order 1 (1, 1.7) 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 4)
TP53+ count 118 140 142
time_stop 33 (22, 52) 29 (17, 51) 32 (20, 50)
n_trt 76 (52, 152) 74 (52, 164) 83 (51, 163)
n_control 172 (108, 298) 153 (89, 264) 162 (101, 283)
post_p 0.14 (0.05, 0.26) 0.15 (0.04, 0.27) 0.16 (0.03, 0.26)
order 3 (1, 5) 2 (1, 5.1) 3 (1, 6)
DRD+ count 17 123 192
time_stop 37 (32, 51) 45 (33, 58) 36 (21, 55)
n_trt 65 (52, 96) 63 (51, 99) 67 (50, 115)
n_control 138 (100, 176) 144 (106, 190) 118 (65, 188)
post_p 0.18 (0.08, 0.28) 0.12 (0.02, 0.26) 0.13 (0.03, 0.25)
order 4 (2, 6) 4 (2, 7) 3 (1, 6)
TEfus+ count 19 200 196
time_stop 28 (20, 39) 36 (23, 54) 36 (23, 54)
n_trt 60 (52, 100) 73 (52, 127) 74 (51, 129)
n_control 116 (81, 176) 162 (95, 232) 152 (92, 227)
post_p 0.14 (0.07, 0.25) 0.12 (0.02, 0.24) 0.11 (0.02, 0.25)
order 3 (1, 6.2) 3 (2, 6) 3 (1, 6)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64
time 34 (15, 55) 34 (15, 55) 34 (15, 55) 34 (15, 55) 34 (15, 55) 34 (15, 55) 34 (15, 55) 34 (15, 55)
n 80 (42, 171) 21 (9, 43) 36 (18, 87) 28 (12, 67) 16 (6, 34) 14 (5, 36) 9 (3, 21) 9 (3, 25)
post_p 0.95 (0.73, 1) 0.72 (0.59, 0.94) 0.68 (0.57, 0.91) 0.66 (0.57, 0.9) 0.74 (0.57, 0.96) 0.76 (0.56, 0.94) 0.63 (0.56, 0.79) 0.63 (0.56, 0.86)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.003, 0.011) 0.007 (0, 0.012) 0.017 (0.007, 0.021) 0.015 (0.002, 0.02) 0.006 (0, 0.012) 0.006 (0, 0.012) 0.011 (0, 0.018) 0.01 (0, 0.019)
Niraparib count 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
time 22 (15, 29) 22 (15, 29) 22 (15, 29) 22 (15, 29) 22 (15, 29) 22 (15, 29) 22 (15, 29) 22 (15, 29)
n 28 (20, 37) 14 (7, 21) 18 (14, 23) 18 (9, 26) 8 (6, 10) 14 (12, 16) 16 (11, 22) 18 (10, 26)
post_p 0.67 (0.67, 0.68) 0.67 (0.59, 0.74) 0.59 (0.57, 0.62) 0.86 (0.8, 0.92) 0.6 (0.58, 0.61) 0.64 (0.64, 0.64) 0.57 (0.57, 0.57) 0.81 (0.78, 0.85)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.007 (0.001, 0.012) 0.003 (0.001, 0.005) 0.006 (0.001, 0.012) 0.004 (0.001, 0.007) 0.006 (0.001, 0.011) 0.011 (0.011, 0.011) 0.009 (0.002, 0.016) 0.004 (0.001, 0.008)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 63 63 63 63
time 44 (28, 57) 44 (28, 57) 44 (28, 57) 44 (28, 57)
n 20 (9, 40) 21 (10, 34) 16 (6, 29) 16 (6, 33)
post_p 0.83 (0.71, 0.96) 0.82 (0.71, 0.97) 0.74 (0.63, 0.88) 0.75 (0.64, 0.87)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0.007 (0.002, 0.013) 0.013 (0, 0.018) 0.014 (0.001, 0.019)
Niraparib count 3 3 3 3
time 32 (28, 40) 32 (28, 40) 32 (28, 40) 32 (28, 40)
n 29 (27, 37) 39 (31, 41) 16 (11, 18) 9 (9, 14)
post_p 0.78 (0.76, 0.82) 0.85 (0.78, 0.97) 0.79 (0.66, 0.8) 0.65 (0.63, 0.88)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.012 (0.008, 0.014) 0.011 (0.007, 0.011) 0.017 (0.016, 0.021) 0.01 (0.007, 0.016)
Taxel_therapies count 2 2 2 2
time 35 (31, 39) 35 (31, 39) 35 (31, 39) 35 (31, 39)
n 22 (21, 24) 22 (20, 24) 7 (1, 13) 18 (7, 28)
post_p 0.84 (0.75, 0.93) 0.75 (0.71, 0.78) 0.82 (0.82, 0.82) 0.67 (0.64, 0.71)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.003 (0.001, 0.005) 0.008 (0.007, 0.009) 0.006 (0.006, 0.006) 0.018 (0.013, 0.022)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 88 88 88 88
time 39 (23, 56) 39 (23, 56) 39 (23, 56) 39 (23, 56)
n 23 (10, 44) 33 (22, 66) 16 (7, 33) 12 (5, 27)
post_p 0.82 (0.71, 0.97) 0.78 (0.71, 0.9) 0.81 (0.69, 0.96) 0.74 (0.63, 0.89)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.008 (0, 0.012) 0.015 (0.007, 0.02) 0.007 (0, 0.011) 0.011 (0, 0.019)
Niraparib count 10 10 10 10
time 26 (18, 51) 26 (18, 51) 26 (18, 51) 26 (18, 51)
n 14 (6, 24) 30 (19, 43) 17 (9, 19) 17 (9, 32)
post_p 0.71 (0.62, 0.86) 0.79 (0.72, 0.84) 0.75 (0.66, 0.83) 0.78 (0.62, 0.87)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.002 (0, 0.012) 0.01 (0, 0.016) 0.01 (0, 0.013) 0.009 (0, 0.024)
Taxel_therapies count 8 8 8 8
time 25 (20, 42) 25 (20, 42) 25 (20, 42) 25 (20, 42)
n 22 (11, 37) 30 (24, 53) 10 (6, 12) 10 (5, 18)
post_p 0.76 (0.71, 0.83) 0.77 (0.73, 0.86) 0.64 (0.62, 0.84) 0.7 (0.62, 0.79)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.01 (0.004, 0.014) 0.013 (0.01, 0.019) 0 (0, 0.009) 0.003 (0, 0.016)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 364 364 364 364
time 37 (20, 54) 37 (20, 54) 37 (20, 54) 37 (20, 54)
n 114 (53, 191) 27 (10, 49) 21 (7, 43) 20 (6, 39)
post_p 0.95 (0.75, 1) 0.79 (0.7, 0.97) 0.75 (0.64, 0.96) 0.75 (0.64, 0.94)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.005, 0.012) 0.008 (0, 0.013) 0.006 (0, 0.012) 0.006 (0, 0.013)
Niraparib count 2 2 2 2
time 16 (15, 16) 16 (15, 16) 16 (15, 16) 16 (15, 16)
n 24 (22, 25) 10 (9, 10) 8 (7, 10) 12 (12, 12)
post_p 0.73 (0.71, 0.75) 0.64 (0.63, 0.65) 0.69 (0.67, 0.71) 0.87 (0.8, 0.94)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.004 (0.001, 0.008) 0 (0, 0)
Taxel_therapies count 2 2 2 2
time 22 (15, 29) 22 (15, 29) 22 (15, 29) 22 (15, 29)
n 53 (43, 63) 18 (9, 27) 9 (7, 11) 5 (1, 9)
post_p 0.77 (0.73, 0.82) 0.76 (0.67, 0.84) 0.68 (0.63, 0.73) 0.64 (0.64, 0.64)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.007 (0.001, 0.012) 0.009 (0.002, 0.016) 0.01 (0.002, 0.017) 0.027 (0.027, 0.027)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 21 21 21 21
time 25 (22, 57) 25 (22, 57) 25 (22, 57) 25 (22, 57)
n 41 (25, 85) 27 (18, 49) 7 (3, 20) 8 (4, 19)
post_p 0.76 (0.71, 0.92) 0.8 (0.71, 0.91) 0.71 (0.61, 0.86) 0.7 (0.61, 0.93)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.005, 0.019) 0.01 (0.004, 0.018) 0.008 (0, 0.017) 0.009 (0, 0.016)
Niraparib count 19 19 19 19
time 32 (18, 52) 32 (18, 52) 32 (18, 52) 32 (18, 52)
n 32 (17, 78) 31 (20, 71) 19 (10, 30) 16 (9, 29)
post_p 0.78 (0.72, 0.92) 0.8 (0.73, 0.92) 0.76 (0.69, 0.92) 0.73 (0.7, 0.82)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.013 (0, 0.018) 0.013 (0, 0.016) 0.011 (0, 0.021) 0.012 (0, 0.022)
Taxel_therapies count 27 27 27 27
time 29 (17, 56) 29 (17, 56) 29 (17, 56) 29 (17, 56)
n 44 (24, 88) 41 (18, 90) 9 (5, 32) 10 (3, 33)
post_p 0.78 (0.72, 0.87) 0.8 (0.72, 0.92) 0.76 (0.61, 0.89) 0.65 (0.62, 0.87)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.007, 0.02) 0.014 (0.006, 0.018) 0.006 (0, 0.017) 0 (0, 0.016)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
time 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11) 10 (10, 11)
n 28 (25, 31) 6 (5, 6) 12 (10, 13) 9 (3, 15) 2 (2, 2) 4 (3, 6) 2 (2, 3) 2 (1, 3)
post_p 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.41 (0.37, 0.46) 0.46 (0.44, 0.48) 0.35 (0.35, 0.35) 0.48 (0.47, 0.48) 0.41 (0.34, 0.47) 0.38 (0.31, 0.46) 0.48 (0.48, 0.48)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.015, 0.016) 0.016 (0.003, 0.029) 0.01 (0.002, 0.018) 0.075 (0.039, 0.11) 0 (0, 0) 0.024 (0.005, 0.044) 0.05 (0.01, 0.089) 0 (0, 0)
Niraparib count 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83
time 39 (19, 57) 39 (19, 57) 39 (19, 57) 39 (19, 57) 39 (19, 57) 39 (19, 57) 39 (19, 57) 39 (19, 57)
n 26 (11, 86) 10 (4, 37) 26 (8, 88) 20 (8, 57) 16 (9, 35) 16 (9, 39) 12 (7, 29) 12 (6, 26)
post_p 0.2 (0.03, 0.42) 0.31 (0.1, 0.46) 0.32 (0.12, 0.48) 0.31 (0.12, 0.47) 0.32 (0.05, 0.46) 0.26 (0.09, 0.49) 0.37 (0.17, 0.49) 0.34 (0.11, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.033) 0.023 (0.016, 0.041) 0.023 (0.017, 0.038) 0.024 (0.017, 0.034) 0.021 (0.014, 0.036) 0.023 (0.016, 0.039) 0.024 (0.017, 0.037) 0.025 (0.016, 0.041)
Taxel_therapies count 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
time 34 (9, 53) 34 (9, 53) 34 (9, 53) 34 (9, 53) 34 (9, 53) 34 (9, 53) 34 (9, 53) 34 (9, 53)
n 31 (14, 101) 13 (6, 34) 31 (16, 73) 20 (11, 37) 8 (2, 25) 9 (2, 24) 6 (2, 19) 5 (1, 16)
post_p 0.22 (0.04, 0.44) 0.28 (0.09, 0.48) 0.35 (0.1, 0.46) 0.34 (0.1, 0.48) 0.34 (0.15, 0.48) 0.35 (0.09, 0.49) 0.37 (0.13, 0.49) 0.35 (0.17, 0.49)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.032) 0.022 (0.012, 0.041) 0.021 (0.014, 0.03) 0.023 (0.017, 0.035) 0.022 (0, 0.048) 0.021 (0, 0.046) 0.023 (0, 0.057) 0.025 (0, 0.064)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 17 17 17 17
time 37 (32, 51) 37 (32, 51) 37 (32, 51) 37 (32, 51)
n 19 (7, 32) 18 (7, 35) 14 (4, 31) 12 (5, 27)
post_p 0.42 (0.29, 0.49) 0.43 (0.22, 0.48) 0.37 (0.22, 0.45) 0.34 (0.24, 0.45)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.012, 0.022) 0.019 (0.011, 0.029) 0.023 (0.018, 0.045) 0.024 (0.016, 0.038)
Niraparib count 192 192 192 192
time 36 (21, 55) 36 (21, 55) 36 (21, 55) 36 (21, 55)
n 18 (11, 40) 17 (9, 35) 14 (8, 31) 15 (7, 32)
post_p 0.35 (0.08, 0.47) 0.33 (0.07, 0.48) 0.37 (0.14, 0.49) 0.37 (0.14, 0.48)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.031) 0.022 (0.015, 0.036) 0.025 (0.017, 0.038) 0.024 (0.016, 0.041)
Taxel_therapies count 123 123 123 123
time 45 (33, 58) 45 (33, 58) 45 (33, 58) 45 (33, 58)
n 16 (6, 34) 19 (8, 37) 15 (5, 28) 12 (5, 27)
post_p 0.29 (0.11, 0.48) 0.34 (0.11, 0.48) 0.34 (0.12, 0.48) 0.36 (0.17, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0.02 (0.014, 0.031) 0.023 (0.016, 0.041) 0.024 (0.017, 0.045)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 19 19 19 19
time 28 (20, 39) 28 (20, 39) 28 (20, 39) 28 (20, 39)
n 17 (7, 33) 22 (7, 41) 17 (6, 28) 9 (4, 18)
post_p 0.3 (0.12, 0.45) 0.39 (0.18, 0.44) 0.41 (0.29, 0.49) 0.33 (0.13, 0.43)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.009, 0.033) 0.022 (0.017, 0.043) 0.016 (0.009, 0.031) 0.027 (0.016, 0.043)
Niraparib count 196 196 196 196
time 36 (23, 54) 36 (23, 54) 36 (23, 54) 36 (23, 54)
n 13 (5, 35) 25 (12, 58) 17 (9, 36) 15 (8, 28)
post_p 0.31 (0.11, 0.47) 0.36 (0.16, 0.49) 0.31 (0.09, 0.48) 0.37 (0.14, 0.48)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.039) 0.022 (0.016, 0.033) 0.022 (0.015, 0.036) 0.024 (0.016, 0.042)
Taxel_therapies count 200 200 200 200
time 36 (23, 54) 36 (23, 54) 36 (23, 54) 36 (23, 54)
n 18 (9, 40) 28 (14, 63) 14 (5, 29) 10 (4, 25)
post_p 0.29 (0.06, 0.48) 0.33 (0.1, 0.48) 0.34 (0.11, 0.48) 0.37 (0.16, 0.48)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.035) 0.023 (0.017, 0.032) 0.021 (0.014, 0.04) 0.025 (0.014, 0.05)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 4 4 4 4
time 17 (11, 21) 17 (11, 21) 17 (11, 21) 17 (11, 21)
n 42 (34, 47) 4 (2, 9) 6 (3, 15) 4 (2, 10)
post_p 0.34 (0.21, 0.44) 0.2 (0.14, 0.28) 0.4 (0.29, 0.48) 0.46 (0.45, 0.47)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.009, 0.014) 0.099 (0.032, 0.195) 0.01 (0, 0.02) 0.005 (0, 0.014)
Niraparib count 392 392 392 392
time 32 (18, 53) 32 (18, 53) 32 (18, 53) 32 (18, 53)
n 32 (13, 96) 13 (5, 36) 18 (10, 41) 17 (9, 38)
post_p 0.28 (0.05, 0.46) 0.35 (0.11, 0.48) 0.35 (0.1, 0.47) 0.34 (0.11, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.019 (0.014, 0.031) 0.021 (0.013, 0.041) 0.02 (0.014, 0.031) 0.021 (0.014, 0.034)
Taxel_therapies count 375 375 375 375
time 33 (20, 53) 33 (20, 53) 33 (20, 53) 33 (20, 53)
n 40 (20, 114) 17 (8, 40) 12 (5, 34) 12 (5, 30)
post_p 0.25 (0.05, 0.46) 0.32 (0.08, 0.47) 0.36 (0.14, 0.48) 0.36 (0.15, 0.48)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.02 (0.015, 0.028) 0.021 (0.013, 0.034) 0.021 (0.012, 0.039) 0.021 (0.013, 0.041)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 118 118 118 118
time 33 (22, 52) 33 (22, 52) 33 (22, 52) 33 (22, 52)
n 31 (15, 69) 26 (10, 57) 10 (3, 22) 8 (3, 23)
post_p 0.29 (0.11, 0.46) 0.37 (0.14, 0.48) 0.37 (0.16, 0.48) 0.35 (0.14, 0.49)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.018, 0.033) 0.022 (0.016, 0.036) 0.025 (0.015, 0.053) 0.027 (0.015, 0.053)
Niraparib count 142 142 142 142
time 32 (20, 50) 32 (20, 50) 32 (20, 50) 32 (20, 50)
n 30 (11, 78) 22 (9, 54) 13 (7, 27) 13 (6, 26)
post_p 0.34 (0.14, 0.48) 0.34 (0.13, 0.48) 0.36 (0.18, 0.47) 0.35 (0.12, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.036) 0.022 (0.016, 0.034) 0.025 (0.017, 0.036) 0.025 (0.016, 0.041)
Taxel_therapies count 140 140 140 140
time 29 (17, 51) 29 (17, 51) 29 (17, 51) 29 (17, 51)
n 36 (22, 77) 24 (13, 53) 8 (4, 21) 7 (3, 20)
post_p 0.35 (0.1, 0.47) 0.35 (0.12, 0.48) 0.39 (0.2, 0.48) 0.38 (0.14, 0.49)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.028) 0.023 (0.017, 0.033) 0.025 (0.017, 0.046) 0.027 (0.013, 0.067)